By Piotr Cieslinski

America’s manned spaceflight program calls to mind the image of the Titanic having already hit the iceberg but still floating on the surface of the sea.

Translated By Olga Tymejczyk

2008-09-26


Poland - Gazeta Wyborcza - Original Article (Polish)

Starting in 2010, when American space shuttles are grounded, Chinese taikonauts will be able to fly over the U.S. territory with impunity, testing weapons and spying.

Another space mission of Chinese astronauts, as well as cooling relations with Russia after the Georgia conflict, caused the American presidential candidates to realize that one of their first decisions after the November elections will have to do with space.

Retiring space shuttles

America’s manned spaceflight program calls to mind the image of the Titanic having already hit the iceberg but still floating on the surface of the sea. Seven astronauts will embark on a space mission in a couple of weeks, but theirs will be one of the final ten planned flights. All three American space shuttles will be retired by 2010, after which they'll become just museum exhibits. The shuttles have turned out to be too defective, even deadly. In the past 123 missions two spacecraft were lost and 14 astronauts died.

And there’s nothing that could replace those space shuttles. Ares, the new crew launch vehicle, and the spacecraft it will launch (Orion) are only now being constructed. At first astronauts were expected to fly them in 2014, but recently there has been talk of a year’s delay, as problems were encountered: vibrations created by Ares after launch are too high and Orion’s capsule is too heavy.

These difficulties don’t come as a surprise, as it’s the first space shuttle developed in the U.S. since the first spacecraft were designed in the early 1970s.

NASA is therefore facing a gloomy prospect of at least five years, from 2010 to 2015, when the astronauts will have nothing to pilot into orbit. This will put the United States in a difficult situation politically, militarily, and with regards to American ambition.

In transit through Baikonur

First of all, Americans won’t have their own means of transportation to the International Space Station which cost nearly 100 billion dollars (with most bills paid by the U.S.). American space aficionados bitterly joke online that NASA should shut down all 4 modules and hang up an announcement: “Will open in 2015.”

Until recently, NASA was planning to… buy seats for its astronauts on the Russian Soyuz spacecraft. Americans would travel to the space station transiting through Baikonur. Russians have set a high price, but compared to enormous costs of a space shuttle flight, this price seems acceptable.

The conflict in Georgia, however, reminded NASA that reliance on cooperation with Russia may have very feeble foundations.

Above all, there is no consensus in the Congress about trading the newest technologies with Russia. Few know that American law forbids purchasing space services from Russia, because that country exports nuclear technologies to Iran. NASA has a special permission from the Congress to let its astronauts voyage on the Soyuz series.

Nevertheless, it’s not certain what Russia would want. Nothing so far seems to suggest it will disregard current cooperation rules and maliciously cut Americans off from the space station. Russia undoubtedly appreciates the money brought by leasing out the Soyuz spacecraft and the U.S. is a rich client.

But the U.S. is not the only client. The European Space Agency also likes the Soyuz and, having signed an agreement with Russia, is constructing a launch pad for the Russian spacecraft in French Guyana.

Without significant financial consequences, Putin could therefore disregard the Americans and refuse to transport their astronauts. Especially since, recently, Russians have emphasized their own strategic interests in space: they’re developing, for example, a system designed to rival the American GPS.

Washington strategists must even be troubled by the mere realization that soon they will depend on Putin’s mercy. They are also disturbed by the increasing Chinese military activity in space.

The Chinese above America?

The entire Chinese manned spaceflight program is under the aegis of the military. The Chinese do not yet have even one percent of Russia’s or America’s experience, but this gap is gradually shrinking.

Starting in 2010, when the American space shuttles are grounded, China will have an actual advantage over the U.S. Taikonauts (that’s how the Chinese call their astronauts) will be able to fly with impunity over the American continent, spying and testing God knows what techniques and military weapons. It is no secret that they’ve been testing weapons designed to damage satellites, e.g. American ones during a potential conflict over Taiwan.

Officially, the Chinese speak of a peaceful use of space, but silently they do otherwise. And sometimes even they are surprised by the devastating effect of their activities. In January, a Chinese missile hit an inoperative meteorological satellite drifting 500km above the Earth. The satellite shattered into millions of pieces which now endanger other satellites and spacecrafts; they have, for example, increased the risk for the next American spaceflight.

For the U.S., taikonauts dominating Earth’s orbit will be a repeat from 1957, when Americans helplessly craned their necks, straining their ears to hear the Soviet Sputnik transmit its “beep.”

It would be a symbolic end to America’s space domination.

That’s why in recent weeks the U.S. administration has been anxiously wondering how to avoid it. Presidential candidates asked President George W. Bush to delay the retirement of the spacecraft by another year . The press also published e-mails in which the NASA administration is considering that option.

It is the last moment to make such decisions. The industry manufacturing necessary parts and ensuring service, thanks to which space shuttles can function, has been slowly disassembled over the last 4 years. It is said that this fall the process will cross the line from which there is no return. Thousands of workers will be laid off, contracts with suppliers will be cancelled, factories will move to different production. A large factory in New Orleans, which used to weld fuel containers, will be closed. Spacecrafts will irrevocably lose their resource base.

Today this can still be turned back; in a couple of months it will no longer be possible. The current president will most definitely leave his successor to make the critical decision on the future of American spacecraft.

What are the pros and cons?

Either space shuttles or Ares

Keeping the shuttles is like playing with fire. Initial calculations put the risk of a catastrophe at one in 100,000 flights. After the explosion of Challenger in 1986, NASA had to revise its risk estimate, but still kept it at a fairly safe level: one accident per 500 launches. However, after the 2003 Columbia disaster these calculations also had to be discarded. It is now estimated that a space shuttle may become a deadly trap once per several dozen flights. NASA failed to improve the shuttles’ safety, despite years of intense efforts and an investment of several billion dollars.

Moreover, bringing shuttles back to life would delay even more the introduction of their successor, because NASA would have to fund both projects. After 2010 the entire space shuttle budget, currently reaching 5 billion dollars a year, was supposed to be devoted to the development of the new crew launch vehicle and spacecraft. Without these funds or the staff currently working on the shuttles, NASA will be forced to slow down its work.

Michael Griffin, the NASA administrator, is strongly opposing such a scenario. He fears that a delay of the verdict on space shuttles would lead to a failure of NASA’s ambitious program of a return to the Moon and a manned flight to Mars which was expected to return the Agency to its former lofty status. These ambitious aims were defined by President Bush in 2004 in his announcement of the “New Vision for Space Exploration” Program, soon after the Columbia disaster. The loss of Columbia was a shock that reinvigorated the American administration. Previously Bush had not been interested in space. His first visit to the NASA headquarters in Houston, TX, was for the ceremony commemorating the dead astronauts. Before that event he had never visited the site, even as the governor of Texas. Only when the pride of American astronautics fell apart in front of an audience of thousands of Americans, was Bush forced to take action.

His “New Vision” first calls for the development of a light version of Ares to launch astronauts into orbit, and later a mightier one – for travel to the Moon and beyond. If funds are lost to continued operation of space shuttles, the new program will most definitely be reduced to the more basic version. Astronauts will gain a new means of transportation, but they will get stuck for good on Earth’s orbit, with no chance for further expeditions.

Moreover, cancellation of the return to the Silver Globe would be a catastrophe to the private space business which has started to flourish in recent years. “New Vision” assumed a harmonious symbiosis: NASA would focus on distant Moon and Mars, and for low flights to the orbit (for example with supplies for a space station or to transport astronauts there) private companies would be hired. It’s a reasonable plan. NASA is frequently criticized for high costs and bureaucracy. Competing private carriers would undoubtedly be cheaper and more efficient. But if NASA doesn’t let them access the space market, their activity will be nipped in the bud.

Politicians will accept it, because their short-term political and military objectives will be met, that is America will not have to suspend flights into orbit and will not be forced to knock on the gates of Baikonur. But NASA will lose the chance to accomplish something great; something that would compare only to the greatness of the Apollo Program.

Other than this, NASA cannot avoid humiliation, as the second race to the Moon ultimately will be lost to the Chinese.