Protecting Syria from U.S. and Israel May Now Be Impossible

Is Washington prepared to sign off on an Israeli invasion of Syria? According to this op-ed article from Saudi Arabia's Arabic-language Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, Damascus may have committed a fatal error by disrupting a deal for the return of one of Israel's kidnapped soldiers, and therefore, an Israeli invasion with Washington's tacit approval may be imminent.

By Abd Al Rahman Al Rached, Editor-in-Chief   
Translated By Nicolas Dagher

July 14, 2006
Saudi Arabia - Al-Sharq Al-Awsat - Original Article (Arabic)    

All of the region's concerned parties want to keep Damascus out of efforts to put pressure on Israel and Hezbullah. For a number of different reasons, the governments involved don't want the open battlefield to extend beyond the Lebanese border.

Even when President Bush said a few days ago that Syria must pay a price, he never said the price would be a military one. In Jordan, Egypt and the Gulf, in spite of differences with the Syrian government and in spite of suspicions that the Syrians had a role in pushing Hezbollah to get involved with Israel, these governments don't want this war to reach Damascus.

WHY INVADE DAMASCUS?

Lebanon is a country without a strong and reliable central government, and at the same time, it is impossible to control the actions of the various parties on the ground [such as Hezbullah]. As for Syria, on the other hand, there is a well-settled political system which would be undermined by a military attack, and which could lead to a situation that could spin out of Damascus' control. It is this likelihood of chaos that so frightens countries throughout the region. No one wants to see another Iraq or another regime come tumbling down.

One Arab official said: "We believe that the Syrian government committed serous mistakes, and continues to do so," in an apparent reference to the fact that Syria disrupted a deal between Hamas and Israel to free the first Israeli soldier that was kidnapped. Such a deal, if it had taken place, would likely have prevented Hezbollah from kidnapping two Israeli soldiers a few days later, sparking the war now taking place in Lebanon. He also added: "In spite of all this, there is an agreement that the fire should not reach Syria, since the Lebanese people would pay dearly for any destabilization that hits Syria."

Recently, Egypt sought to prevent a U.S. military campaign against Syria, following Washington's accusations that Damascus was behind all of the terrorist attacks against American soldiers in Iraq and the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. The countries of the region have interceded on many occasions to protect Syria from all possible attacks.

The question is: Can an angry Israel be kept away from Syria this time, especially since no one knows if Washington will look the other way?

Now there are signs that Israel might repeat its the invasion scenario that it undertook in Lebanon in 1982, but this time in Syria, taking advantage of its overwhelming military superiority. This possibility doesn’t escape Damascus, which is aware of the gravity of the situation.

According an Arab official familiar with the details of this situation, Iran is trying to drag its feet by using Syria to escalate the situation and avoid its own direct involvement. Iran is using Damascus like a chess piece to manipulate a regional conflict. Tehran is in a state of conflict with the West over its growing political influence in the region and its nuclear program, and is now prepared to move the crisis to the level of direct confrontation.

If such an open confrontation does take place, Iran knows that it has little to lose, being a large country with a strong military, and with an established political system and lots of  oil in high demand.

Syria's situation is different, situated as it is between the hammer of American and anvil of Israeli, with a broken-down economy and unable to cope with Israeli power on its own.

Like the person afraid of seeing a demon, the Arab official said that there has always been a fear that such a war was likely to happen, and now it looks like the present war might spin out of control.

VIDEO FROM IRAN: 'IF HEZBULLAH

IS DEFEATED, SYRIA WILL BE NEXT'

KERMAN TV, IRAN: Excerpts from a speech given by Iranian cleric Ahmad Khatami, wherein he supports supplying Hezbullah with weapons and attcks on Israel's nuclear arsenal in Haifa, July 16, 00:03:00, Via MEMRI

"The Islamic governments should know that if the Islamic resistance [Hezbullah] is defeated, tomorrow it will be the turn of Syria, the day after tomorrow it will be the turn of Saudi Arabia, and then will come the turn of Egypt and Jordan."

Iranian cleric Ahmad Khatami

Arabic Version Below

المحافظة على سورية

كل الأطراف المعنية في المنطقة تريد إبعاد دمشق عن المعركة بالضغط على اسرائيل والضغط على حزب الله. ولأسباب مختلفة الحكومات المعنية لا تريد ان تمتد المعركة الى ما وراء الحدود اللبنانية، ساحة القتال المفتوحة.

وحتى عندما قال الرئيس الاميركي جورج بوش قبل ايام ان على سورية ان تدفع الثمن فانه لم يقل إن الثمن عسكري. في الأردن والخليج ومصر، رغم الاختلاف مع الحكومة السورية، ورغم وجود شك بأن للسوريين دوراً في دفع حزب باتجاه التورط مع اسرائيل، إلا ان حكومات هذه الدول تريد ألا تصل الحرب الى دمشق.

لماذا دمشق وليست بيروت؟

لبنان بلد بلا حكومة مركزية قوية يمكن الركون اليها، وفي نفس الوقت يستحيل ضبط تصرفات الفرقاء عالى الساحة. اما سورية فهناك نظام سياسي كامل وبالتالي فان أي استهداف عسكري سيضعفه، وقد يجعل من الشام خارج السيطرة. وهي الفوضى التي تخيف كل دول المنطقة. فلا احد يريد عراقا آخر ولا انهيارات للأنظمة. يقول مسؤول عربي «اننا نعتقد ان السلطة السورية ارتكبت اخطاء جسيمة، ولا تزال تفعل، في تلميح بأنها التي افسدت صفقة بين حماس واسرائيل للافراج عن الجندي الاسرائيلي الاسير، ولو تمت لما دكت غزة، ولا خطف حزب الله جنديين إسرائيليين لاحقا. يقول، ورغم هذا كله هناك اتفاق على الا تمتد النار اليها، وأي زعزعة تصيبها سيدفع اللبنانيون ثمنا أكبر.

في الماضي القريب سعت مصر الى ايقاف حملة عسكرية اميركية كانت ستشن عقب اتهامات واشنطن لدمشق بأنها وراء العمليات الارهابية ضد جنودها في العراق، وانها من اغتال الحريري. وتعددت المرات التي توسطت فيها دول المنطقة لحماية سورية من كل هجمة محتملة.

السؤال هل يمكن بالفعل ابعاد اسرائيل هذه المرة خاصة ان احدا لا يدري ان كانت واشنطن ستغض النظر؟

حتى الآن هناك اشارات تهدد بأن اسرائيل قد تكرر سيناريو اجتياح لبنان عام 82 باجتياح مماثل لسورية، مستفيدة من التفوق العسكري الاسرائيلي، الأمر الذي لا تنكره دمشق، وتعرف خطورته.

وبحسب تفسير مسؤول عربي حول هذا الموضوع قال ان ايران تحاول استخدام سورية بالتصعيد والتوريط. فايران تلعب دمشق قطعة شطرنج في نزاع اقليمي. فهي في حال نزاع مع الغرب حول برنامجها النووي ونفوذها السياسي في المنطقة ومستعدة لتحريك الأزمة الى درجة التصادم. ولو وقع صدام شامل تدرك ايران انها لن تخسر كثيرا كونها بلدا كبيرا وجيشها قوي، ونظامها راسخ، ونفطها مطلوب.

أما سورية فوضعها مختلف، حيث تقع بين حجري الرحا الاسرائيلي والاميركي، وتعاني من اقتصاد منهك، ولا تقوى على مواجهة القوة الاسرائيلية وحدها.

وعلى غرار من يخاف من خروج العفريت يقول المسؤول إن خوفنا من سيناريو الحرب كان دائما واردا والحرب الحالية قد تخرج عن السيطرة.

alrashed@asharqalawsat.com