Xinjingbao,
China
After
Democrats Pick Obama or Hillary, U.S. Election May Be Over
Will U.S.
Democrats tear themselves to shreds deciding who to nominate for President? Will
the Republican nominee attack Bush and cause internal Republican Party
dissention? Who better to ask that one of the most powerful political parties
in the world – the Chinese Communists? According to this op-ed article from
China's state-controlled Xinjingbao [Beijing News], the Democrats are in such
good shape, there may be little need for Americans to vote.
By Liu Wei Dong, a Scholar in Beijing
Translated By How Xian Neng
February 12,
2007
China –
Xinjingbao – Original Article (Chinese)
After Black Senator Barack Obama
officially announced his intention to run for the Presidential nomination, the
Democratic Party's electoral road map became clear. Even though there are other
candidates participating in the battle, a common opinion holds that the
Democratic nomination will be a clash between a woman and an African American.
Will this unprecedented phenomenon signal an early end to the electoral battle?
After many years of lies,
delusions and neo-conservative rule, the American Public can endure no more.
[The Chinese characters for neo-conservatives (阴阳失调)
stand for Fire-God Faction] Americans no longer wish to live in Bush's shadow,
and are looking forward to building a new America. At this moment, two new
stars have emerged in the opposition camp. To have two such fresh faces at once
is extremely rare in American history. Whether it's Hilary or Obama, both are
full of personal charm – which is in stark contrast to the rigidly conservative
Bush Administration. And both candidates have toyed with the same message:
“It's time to rebuild America's Image.” Under the banner of doing the People’s
will, the Democratic Party's new black and female stars have become the most
popular figures in American politics.
At the same time, last year’s
midterm Congressional elections were a sign of things to come. In Congressional
races two years ago, Republicans preserved their majority even though the
weaknesses of Bush's domestic and foreign policies had already been exposed.
But today, the American public has lost its patience with the incorrigibly
obstinate neo-conservative Republican faction. The Democrats are far more in
tune than the Republicans with the mainstream ideological trends of American
society. They look nothing like they did two years ago, when the Kerry campaign
stubbornly defended his strongly liberal views. Many of the new Democratic
congressmen are more temperate and moderate, which shows that the party has
complied with popular sentiment and should find it easier to win elections.
In contrast, not only is the
enthusiasm of Republicans at a very low ebb, but they are suffering from a lack
of internal coordination [in Chinese, an imbalance of Yin and Yang, 阴阳失调] The
Republican advantage of depending on a strong executive [the President] has
become a distinct disadvantage. Bush has already become persona non grata
and makes an easy target, which will put the Republican Party candidate in an
awkward position: Only by differentiating themselves from Bush can they hope to
win support; but excessive criticism of Bush will cause internal party
dissention.
Stricken with the long-term
illness of the Bush regime, Republicans are unable to inoculate themselves with
a dose of strong criticism like their Democrats counterparts. Instead, they
have to quietly swallow the bitter fruit planted by Bush. Even though Democrats
have their share of internal disagreement, the disputes of Republicans over key
issues like withdrawal from Iraq are much harder to reconcile. Bush's hard-line
supporters will give a heap of trouble colleagues who want to abandon him.
The Democrats have much better
prospects.
Hilary is a seasoned veteran with
tremendous capital, and Obama is young, vibrant and passionate.
Although they will clash before
facing a common adversary, the advantages of whoever wins will be sufficient to
cause panic in any opponent. If they should decide to team up, the two should
perfectly compliment one another.
Polls show that 62 percent of
American voters are ready for a Black president, and the Washington Post
has stated that Hillary’s candidacy deserves "bipartisan applause."
As long as Democrats maintain their advantage over Republicans by putting the
interests of the Party first during the primaries, the Democratic National
Convention next summer could be the real end of the America election. The only
choice Americans may get to make could be between a female President or a Black
President.
Chinese Version Below
美国大选：民主党的内战？
www.thebeijingnews.com ·
2007-2-12 3:45:36 · 来源： 新京报
随着美国黑人参议员奥巴马昨天正式宣布参加明年的总统大选，民主党内的大选路线图进一步明朗化。尽管仍会有多人参与党内厮杀，但目前比较一致的看法是，民主党内的总统竞选提名之战将在一位妇女和一位黑人之间展开。这种史无前例是否也同时意味着美国大选的提前结束？
经过了“火神派”的多年统治，无中生有、强词夺理、执迷不悟等现政府的形象特征已使美国民众难以忍受，他们不愿在摆脱布什后还继续生活在如此阴 影下，进而期待一个新的美国。就在这时，布什的对立阵营里出现了两位新人，两位美国历史上极为少见的新鲜面孔，无论希拉里还是奥巴马都充满了个人魅力，与 一贯保守僵硬的布什政府形成鲜明对照。他们还不约而同的打出了同一个口号：“现在是重塑美国形象的时候了！”在顺天应民的大旗下，民主党的黑人与妇女明星 已经成为美国政坛上的最大热门。
同时，去年的国会中期选举也成为一个预示未来的风向标。两年前的国会选举时，尽管布什的内外政策已经露出破绽，但共和党依然保住了在国会的优 势，但今天的美国民众对于顽固不化的共和党强硬保守派已有些不耐烦了。民主党人比共和党人更好地顺应了美国社会的主流思潮，他们不再像两年前克里竞选总统 时那样固守自己的自由立场，而是变得更加温和折中，并因此吸引了大量不喜欢布什而又担心传统民主党人的中间选民。民主党的新当选议员很多都属于温和的保守 派，这也表明善于顺应民心的民主党人更容易博得青睐。
相形之下，共和党不仅人气不足，而且他们的痛苦更多来自于自身的阴阳失调。现政府掌握着更多行政资源的优势恰恰变成了劣势。布什已经成为“不受 欢迎的人”，对手可以通过尽情攻击而拿分，但共和党候选人本身会因此而更为尴尬：只有显示出与布什的不同才有机会得到更多认可；但过多批评布什又容易在党 内引起分裂，久病缠身使得他们无法像对手那样给出一剂猛药，于是只能悄然吞下布什种下的苦果。虽然民主党内也有分歧，但共和党候选人在如撤军一类关键议题 上的意见分歧更加明显，也更难以愈合，布什的铁杆支持者会给想撇开布什的同僚增添更多麻烦。
民主党内则生机勃勃。
希拉里资深老练资本雄厚，奥巴马年轻热情充满活力。
尽管他们在遭遇共同对手之前必先自相残杀，可一旦分出高下，任何一方的优势都足以让对手惊恐；他们如配对参选，绝妙的优势互补将使其更具竞争力。
民调显示，62％的美国选民已做好迎接一位黑人总统的准备，而《华盛顿邮报》则认为，希拉里参选值得美国两党都“鼓掌欢迎”。只要民主党在预选 的内耗中以党派利益为重，保持住对共和党的原有优势，明年夏天民主党全国代表大会的开幕式可能也会成为美国大选的闭幕式。美国人真正面临的重大抉择，或许 只是让女人还是黑人当总统而已。
□刘卫东（北京学者）
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