Dar al-Hayat Lebanon

Tehran and Damascus Overshadow Bush's Tour

By Elias Harfouche     

January 03, 2008

Lebanon - Dar al-Hayat - Original Article - (English)

President George Bush's tour of the region this week may bring many surprises, especially with respect to the stops he intends to make, apart from the seven stops already announced in the presidential itinerary.

The only two stops that will surely remain out of this tour are Damascus and Tehran. These two capitals will cast heavy shadows over all of Bush's talks during the tour. This will be the case these talks revolve around the Palestinian situation, regarding which Bush expressed his "optimism" that the conditions are ripe for the rise of the Palestinian state before the end of his mandate. It will also be the case if the talks revolve around the Lebanese presidential crisis, and when the American president ponders over the Gulf waters by the Iranian shore.

Damascus and Tehran pervade everything, even though this state of affairs is, according to the Bush administration, is negative or obstructive. If there is some kind of accord between the American president and his hosts in estimating the level of disruption currently taking place on the Lebanese and Palestinian fronts, and in identifying those directly responsible, the case of Iran and the US perspective on how way to deal with it will be much less clear. Washington is using a dual language vis-à-vis the Iranian role in Iraq, wherein the US military officials are acknowledging “positively” its minimizing threats against their forces and vis-à-vis the danger posed by the supposed Iranian nuclear arms, following the latest report of the CIA. This language is rendering the regional allies of the U.S. confused about the real policy of Washington, not least because they have history of being afflicted badly by abrupt fluctuations in such policy.

It seems that Bush was warned that he might come across such suspicions regarding the U.S.'s real motives during his tour of the Gulf countries. Thus, he went on to say (in an interview with Reuters), that "he will explain to them that the report of the CIA shows that Iran still represents a threat." He will also remind them that "a country that can halt a nuclear program can easily resume it."

However, things will not be that ambiguous when it comes to the Palestinian and Lebanese issues. Bush has tried to give the impression in his latest statements that he will call on Israel to respect its obligations to the peace process according to the road map, especially in the settlements case. However, the part related to what he calls "Israel's security" has remained a prevailing issue. For instance, he confirmed that he will not allow the rise of a "terrorist state" adjacent to Israel, when referring to fears about the possibility of a confrontation across all Palestinian territories, like that currently experienced by Gaza. As such, the US president is not withholding his true view of "Hamas", which is classified by the US and Europe as a "terrorist" organization.

On the Lebanese front, President Bush was more upfront when he held Syria directly accountable for the ongoing quagmire. He identified its interference is hampering the presidential elections. He said that he will remind "our allies and friends" of the importance of putting an end to this interference in Lebanese affairs. He was also forthright about his support of the parliamentary majority and of the government of PM Fouad Siniora. This same support is enjoyed by the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, who is also facing an internal quagmire of a similar magnitude and against a similar backdrop.

Based on all this, what can the US president's tour accomplish?

Bush has put labels on his tour: promoting peace between Israel and the Palestinians and containing the "hostile aspirations" of Iran. He will strive to rally the largest number of regional forces for his plan and for standing up to the two disrupting forces that he considers to be at the heart of the problems that his allies are enduring. But Damascus and Tehran are wagering on the failure of the U.S. plan, based on its history and the fact that President Bush is not seriously committed to peace with Israel. This is in addition to the factor of time that is not in favor of the U.S.. In fact, the Syrian President Bahar Assad was ahead of everyone else when he suggested the outcome of Bush's tour. In an interview with the Austrian newspaper "The Press" (on December 19), he said that he doesn't expect much from the tour. It is too late to talk about peace in the last year of the administration's mandate, during which it will be occupied by the elections.