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Chavez Should Think Twice Before Cutting Ties With U.S.

If President Chavez follows through on a threat to "revise" relations with the United States if Washington refuses to extradite Luis Posada Carriles, the economic damage to Venezuela could be "devastating."

By Pedro A. Palma

May 28, 2005

Original Article (Spanish)    

A new surprise was contained in President Chávez’ recent announcement: that Venezuela’s diplomatic ties with the United States could be revised if the extradition of Luis Posada Carriles to our country does not take place. Without entering into the legal or moral justifications of such a move, I believe that to condition the relations we have traditionally maintained with that nation on the consummation of this extradition is excessive and out of order.

— BBC NEWS VIDEO: U.S. Accused of 'Terror Hypocrisy', 00:01:16

Limiting myself strictly to economics, it is worth remembering that a rupture in relations [with the United States] could have devastating consequences for our economy, because it would risk much more that it would appear at first glance. In order to understand why I say this, it is worth mentioning that more than 50% of the hydrocarbons we export go directly to that country, amounting to sales surpassing $2 billion this year. Before we stray from being the reliable supplier we are today, it is important to recall that it would be much easier for North America to replace us as a petroleum provider than it would be for us to replace them as clients because, among other reasons, the acid content of our heavy crude requires some very unusual and very expensive refinery infrastructure, a good percentage of which is located in the United States.

Additionally, nearly 40% of our non-petroleum exports are destined for that market, and more from 30% of our imports come from that country. The last point implies that during the present year, the value of all commercial tractions between the two nations approaches $3 billion, with a balance of trade very favorable to us.

The U.S., in addition to being our number one commercial trading partner, is also one of Venezuela’s top foreign investors, and the greatest recipient of our own foreign investments, among them CITGO, a subsidiary of PDVSA [Petroleos de Venezuela SA , Venezuela’s state oil company] that operates important refinery infrastructure for preparing our crude oil, and which controls one of the most extensive networks of service stations in that country.

To put at risk all the economic and other types of connections that have traditionally existed between our two nations over so many years makes absolutely no sense. Moderation and common sense must prevail, and we must avoid taking compulsive action with potentially unthinkable costs to all Venezuelans.


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