La Cronica De Hoy, Mexico

McCain is Solid; Uncertainty for the Democrats

By Amy Glover

February 06, 2008

Mexico - Cronica - Original Article (Spanish)

Yesterday was one of the most important days of the presidential primary in the United States, but the process is far from over. On the one hand, the Republicans have a candidate who has shown overwhelming strength. The Democrats face a more complex scenario, because at the end of [the day], the contest between Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama was very even, despite the fact that each candidate tried to interpret the results in their own way.

The process of the primaries in the EU is highly complex and the rules of the process vary among votes. In the case of the Democratic Party, yesterday saw voting in 24 states, while the Republicans had 20 primaries.. Both parties allocate state delegates differently and even within each party, the allocations varies by state. The Democratic Party assigns a number of delegates to each candidate according to the percentage of votes it receives. Republicans, in most cases, give all the delegates from one state to the candidate with the most votes (winner-takes-all), so it is easier to see a clear choice more quickly in the case of Republicans . There are also what are called "superdelegates" - important political personalities who are assigned by each party and who can vote as they like on the convention. They therefore become increasingly important in the event that the contest is close, as is now the case for the Democrats.

The process of the state primaries culminates in the party conventions (23-25 August for the Democrats and 1-4 September for the Republicans), but important primaries remain in the coming months, particularly in Wisconsin on 19 February in Texas on 4 March. In the case of the Democrats, there is a possibility that there will not be a clear candidate at the party to the convention, which means nearly seven months of uncertainty, unless in the coming one of the two candidates decides to withdraw.

The uncertainty among the Democrats is a disadvantage because attacks will continue between Clinton and Obama, causing greater “wear”. Rather than be fighting among themselves, Democrats need to quickly develop a strategy to beat the Republicans in November. The longer the selection of the presidential candidate takes, the more fissures will open up in the party and the more time Republicans will have to build their attack.

This problem has plagued the Democratic Party for decades. It is a party with diverse currents of the center-left and often it has significant internal differences of opinion, as we see today. The Republican Party, on the other hand, was largely Anglo-Saxon, Protestant and upper middle class. The homogeneity of the Republicans is a strength to that allows the party to build unity and consensus more easily.

The perception of the strength of the candidates will be extremely important in the coming weeks and months, as it ensures that they can continue to seek funds - the essential fuel of the entire campaign.

It will also be interesting to follow up on speculation regarding who might be invited as vice-presidential candidates. McCain will probably look for someone who can generate support among the most conservative of his party. It is difficult to predict who might be a potential candidate for the vice-presidency on the Democrat side, but it will be important to consider a politician from a southern state to balance the strengths of both Clinton and Obama in the north.

 As usual, and we know that the Republicans will offer a white man to fight for the White House in November. What remains to be seen is whether McCain will face in the ring a woman or an African American.

retroaliment@yahoo.com

Original Spanish Version Here