HOME	Where the World's Views of America Come into Focus

By Eric Leser

March 28, 2005

Original Article (French)    

For the first time since he entered the White House, in January 2001, George W. Bush may soon suffer his first major domestic policy defeat. The partial privatization of the Social Security system, announced as the most significant reform of his second mandate, seems to have very little chance of being adopted by Congress. Republican Bill Frist, the Senate majority leader, recently implied that the initiative may finally be pushed into next year.

It’s been a long time since the Republicans have been so powerful. Since the President’s re-election in November 2004, they have controlled the White House and enjoy a comfortable majority in both the Senate and the House of representatives. But it is his own party that George Bush cannot manage to convince.

Paradoxically, only five months after his electoral victory, Mr. Bush is likely to begin his second mandate with a snub from which it will be hard to recover. Finished will be the great ambition, acknowledged during last year’s re-election euphoria, to demolish the Welfare state, the heritage of Franklin Roosevelt and the New Deal of the years 1930s.

For the first time in six decades, we have the opportunity to win the battle over Social Security," wrote Peter Wehner, director of the White House office of strategic initiatives, in a letter to Republican elected officials.

The latter, however, obviously do not have any intention of making it possible for George Bush to leave that particular mark on history. They already have their minds on next year’s elections, and a number of them
are already thinking of the 2008 presidential race.

IDEOLOGICAL MOTIVATION

The risk of a second mandate marked by impotence, at least on the domestic level, is all the more great for a president who, surveys indicate, is being viewed increasingly unfavorably. In the last survey, carried out by Gallup, USA Today and CNN last week, only 45% of Americans view George Bush favorably. This number has never been so low. Experts give several reasons: the unpopularity of Social Security reform, the opening of oil drilling in Alaska [The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge], the rise in gas prices, and finally, federal intervention into the case of Terri Schiavo.

Another opinion survey, carried out last week for CBS News, indeed shows that 82% of those questioned were opposite to the initiatives, taken by Congress and the President, to save the 41-year-old young woman who has spent the last 15 years in a vegetative coma. She has come to symbolize the legal battle over euthanasia, and during the recent debate, George W. Bush has chosen his side.

He curtailed his Easter holiday at his ranch in Texas to rush back to Washington and sign the bill, specifically written by Congress for Shiavo, authorizing the Federal Courts to reexamine the case of the young woman. But all the pressure applied to the Federal courts and the Supreme Court was useless. It is less a defeat for the President than it is for Republicans in Congress, because it will undoubtedly cause les damage than the likely abandonment of Social Security reform.

"The plan to transform the system of the retirements is, today, quite simply kaput," summarized Jacob Weisberg, editor at Slate online. First of all, because Democratic members of Congress are, for once, united. There is little fear of defection, unlike the votes on tax cuts during 2001 and 2003. The feeling that it may finally gain a victory and prevent the dismantling of the 70-year-old institution galvanizes the opposition. Democrats have the support of trade unions like the AFL-CIO, and especially the powerful American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), which has 35 million members.

The opposition of the AARP to the reforms has given considerable pause to Republican elected officials. Pensioners and citizens over 50-years-old have considerable electoral weight, and vote more than any other age group in the United States. According to a survey carried out in mid-March for the Washington Post and ABC, only 35% of Americans approve of the privatization of Social Security, down from 38% in December, with ­56% saying that they consider the idea dangerous

"The explanation is simple. Social Security resembles more of a house where the roof needs repairs than a house where the foundation is rotten. The system will be able to pay 100% of pensions promised until 2041. For this reason people do not support a plan, the motivation of which is purely ideological," said Robert Greenstein, of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The newspaper USA Today adds: "Bush treated retirements like a means of achieving a political realignment, and that does not pass."

Many American presidents have had difficult second terms. Will George Bush avoid a similar destiny?