Le Monde Diplomatique, France

U.S. Failures bring Pakistan Close to Collapse

By Ignacio Ramonet

Translated by Barbara Wilson

December, 2007

France - Le Monde Diplomatique - Original Article (French)

Pakistan is the latest country affected by spreading instability because of the war on terrorism after 9/11. More than four years after the capture of Baghdad, the geopolitical outlook is bleak. The military impasse has been followed by diplomatic disasters. The terrorist threat is undiminished despite the declared objective of the United States. None of the conflicts – Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Somalia – has been resolved. There are 165,000 US troops in Iraq but prospects remain uncertain. Daily life for the civilian population is still hell. And there is trouble in the north, on the border between Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey, with the threat of a clash between two US allies.

US intervention has rescued its worst enemy, Iran, from two dangerous rivals: the Ba’athist regime in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan. (A country can seldom have done its principal enemy such favours.) Iran is now free to concentrate on its nuclear programme. The US and Israel threaten to bomb its nuclear installations, adding to the chaos in the region and driving oil prices up.

Nato forces are on the defensive in Afghanistan. The US, with more than 15,000 men in the field, is asking its allies to send more troops. The Taliban have regained the initiative, suicide attacks are up, there is a record poppy harvest and opium exports are booming. Reconstruction is slow and democratic institutions are weak. The provinces, controlled by warlords, are distancing themselves further from the Kabul government. According to diplomatic sources, President Hamid Karzai would not last 10 days if the West pulled out (1).

In this unstable geopolitical situation, Pakistan, one of President George Bush’s strongest allies in the region, threatens to collapse. On 3 November General Pervez Musharraf announced a state of emergency in Islamabad, a serious admission of weakness that alarmed the US. The general, who came to power after a coup in 1999, was hastily recruited by the US in 2001 in the war against the Taliban and al-Qaida bases in Afghanistan, just when he was (as he said himself) under threat of seeing his country pulverised in a massive nuclear attack. The Bush administration saw no contradiction in joining forces with a dictator in one country to bring democracy to another.

In return for his support, Musharraf got international recognition and $11bn to equip his army and police force. Pakistan, with a population of 167 million, is the only Muslim country with nuclear weapons and the capability to fire long-range missiles up to 2,500km. It is of enormous strategic importance, located close to the crises in Afghanistan, Iran and the Middle East.

The great fear in the US and elsewhere is that Islamists in Pakistan will join forces with the Taliban, take control of the country and get their hands on nuclear weapons. Musharraf is hated by the judiciary. He has muzzled the media and blamed the crisis on opposition parties. His unpopularity means he is the weak link in the political system. The aim of US diplomacy is to replace him in the short or medium term. Not with either of the two main opposition leaders, Nawaz Sharif or Benazir Bhutto, who would serve at best to give a democratic gloss, but with another strong man, perhaps General Ashfaq Kyani – someone the US has on a tight rein.