By Frédéric Tellier*

Translated By Pascaline Jay

April 14, 2006
France - Liberation - Original Article (French)

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad:
Have the Mullahs Put One Over on Him and Us? (above).

[Mahmoud Ahmadinejad]

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Rapid Rise to the Presidency Has
Been Accompanied By Charges That He Was Involved in the
Iran Hostage Crisis. He Denies Being the Man to the Right of
the American Hostage (below), Parading Him for the Cameras.

 



Iran's Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei,
the Real Power in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Here is the
Great Man Meeting Government Officials Last Year. (above).

[ Khamenei Shrine, For The Real Fan]

From Left to Right, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad and Hashemi Rafsanjani Take a Stroll Together
Before the Presidential Elections Last Year. (below)


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Has Teheran already won its nuclear bet? Now that the step of enriching uranium has been achieved, mastering the complete nuclear fuel cycle is only a matter of time. Soon, Iran won't need anyone else to complete its walk toward a nuclear weapon. In terms of the war of wills with the West, Teheran walks serenely. Its strategy is more of a methodical walk forward rather than a sprint.

The only real threat Teheran ever took seriously, the American military threat, is eroding more and more every day, due to the human, military and financial cost of the Iraq War. The Iranians know it: the instinctive reluctance of Westerners to trigger a crisis with the country has now reached America. These factors taken together reinforce the paradoxical effects of the Bush Administration's Middle East adventures. This unprecedented situation has created a path, narrow but clear, which Teheran has intends to follow in order to obtain a nuclear weapon.

Indeed, who really wants a crisis with Iran? The Americans as well as the Europeans use the word "sanction" in dribs and drabs. This is the condition under which the Russians and Chinese are willing to join the debates at the Security Council. Teheran has long understood that, and is already looking beyond the Security Council.

It is possible that Iran's strategy is centered on the concept of appeasement, once it completes the necessary technological steps to master nuclear technology. Despite himself, President Ahmadinejad has a role to play in this strategy.

Iran's nuclear strategy utterly escapes the Iranian president. Ahmadinejad carries no weight in Iran's nuclear program, but the mullahs have taken him in and given him a role. The chronology of events clearly establishes this: the decision to re-launch sensitive nuclear activities had already been taken before Ahmadinejad came into office. Even before the election of its new president, the Islamic regime knew that its nuclear program would trigger unprecedented tension with the Western world. So the regime orchestrated, with the help of electoral fraud, the arrival of that contentious personality just as it was entering the most contentious phase of its nuclear strategy. The two events intentionally coincided.

And for what reason?

Ahmadinejad and his torrent of rhetoric have contributed to a personification of the crisis and have promoted the idea in the West, the clearly incorrect idea, that the new president is responsible for all this. Because of the rupture of recent policy that the Iranian president seems to impose, the international community tends to believe that there has been a sudden turning point in Iranian nuclear strategy, which appears associated with the return of the extremists. Rather, is the careful execution of a plan that far transcends the games between factions. In spite of himself, by keeping up the appearance of this quid-pro-quo, Ahmadinejad has cleared the Islamic system itself. By attracting the thunder of the Western world to himself, isn't he just the regime's lighting rod?

And this has been done with no intention other than to get rid of him early to better legitimize a successor much more acceptable to the Western world. And who better than this predecessor to take charge of the nuclear issue?

The image of Iran would then improve, inviting Westerners to consider a more moderate approach, so as not to compromise hopes of a positive evolution of the regime. Iran hasn't changed course on the nuclear issue, but it is betting on the fact that the arrival of a more pragmatic or a new kind of reformer would be enough to assuage Westerners reluctance to interfere with what appears to be the favorable evolution of Iran's politics.

Solid proof of such a strategy exists. Ahmadinejad has already survived two attempts on his life. Moreover, the great leader of the Revolution [Atatollah Khamenei] who, after entirely fabricating the career of Ahmadinejad, reinforced the power of his most determined rival, [former president] Hashemi Rafsandjani.

The Islamic system has already begun to prepare for Ahmadinejad's succession. And it is entirely possible that the Western world will be so pleased to have him replaced, that it will concern itself only with appearances. Because today, when confronted with the excesses of Ahmadinejad, the Western world tends to recall the dark past associated with Islamic Iran, but will it so remember when faced with a more accepted interlocutor?

Mohammad Khatami's eight years in power showed that the Western world, especially Europe, could minimize or even completely forget this painful past. The heart of the Iranian bet is that the future will be the same, and that Europe, but not only Europe, after having witnessed a democratic changeover in Teheran, will accept and minimize its criticism, as it did in the past, so as not to compromise a political process apparently moving in the right direction.

A winning strategy mustn't be changed, and that is why Iran is betting that history will repeat itself.

*Frédéric Tellier is a researcher at the Institute of Strategic and International Relations in Paris. His latest book is "Iran's Hour (l'Heure de l'Iran)," published by Ellipses.

VIDEO FROM DUBAI: 'SHIITES MORE LOYAL TO IRAN THAN TO IRAQ'

Al-Arabiya TV, Dubai: Excerpts from an interview with Egyptian President Husni Mubarak, Apr. 8, 00:04:58, Via MEMRI

"Not "on the brink." Civil war has more or less broken out. ... The Shiites are always loyal to Iran. Most of them are loyal to Iran and not to the countries in which they live ..."

Egyptian President Husni Mubarak