[The Telegraph, U.K.]

Liberation, France

Kremlin Moves to Capitalize

On Travails of the Americans

And Regain Lost Influence …

"The decline of the Roman Empire began when, instead of an army of the people, Cesar and Pompeii created an army of professional soldiers who weren't willing to die ... today, it's the Americans who don't want to die."

-- Anatoli Outkine, Historian at the Institute of the U.S.A. and Canada at the Russian Academy of Sciences

By Lorraine Millot

Translated By Sandrine Ageorges

August 15, 2007

France - Liberation - Original Article (French)

"The United-States behaves like a drunken hooligan. Us … we'll wait for them to sober up." Like many Russian experts, Sergueï Markov, a political economist close to the Kremlin, allows himself a measure of irreverence toward the world's most powerful nation. Vladimir Putin recently set the Russian tone when he called the United-States "Comrade Wolf," ready to devour the smallest nations, or by comparing American policy with that of Adolph Hitler.

In the footsteps of the Russian president, journalists attached to the Kremlin celebrate with great fanfare the demise of the "world's gendarme [police man]." But if Russian discourse is outraged, it's a measure of the overarching fear provoked by American progress in space during the post-Soviet era. Ukraine's December 2004 Orange Revolution - regarded by the Kremlin as remote-controlled from Washington - was a considerable trauma for Moscow. As was the election of Mikhaïl Saakachvili in Georgia, who's a President who dreams of America and NATO. In the Kremlin, America's weakening is first and foremost perceived as an occasion to see this Western pressure fade from Russia's borders.

Roman Empire

"The less the United States succeeds in its insane policy of isolating Russia, the better it is for us," summarizes Sergueï Markov, who - like many of those with close ties to the Kremlin - readily puts the blame for Russian difficulties with its neighbors on the Americans. "The failure of the United States in Iraq has discredited its global policy of democratization," observes Fiodor Loukianov, editor of the magazine Russia in Global Affairs. But the analyst confesses, "Today, no one in the world is prepared to challenge the Americans for the role of world leader, and certainly not Russia."

But the Kremlin can benefit from current circumstances to try and make up for some of its losses over the past fifteen years. While world order vacillates, Russia has an itching desire to adapt a few of its pieces. For Russian nationalists - who are very popular today - this is an occasion to trumpet.

"The decline of the Roman Empire began when, instead of an army of the people, Cesar and Pompeii created an army of professional soldiers who weren't willing to die," explains Anatoli Outkine, a historian at the Institute of the U.S.A. and Canada at the Russian Academy of Sciences. "But today, it's the Americans who don't want to die," continues the expert: "Americans don't like to work on computers … So they've populated their Silicon Valley with Indians and Iranians … San Francisco is the capital of homosexuals …"

[Editor's Note: Mr. Outkine is mistaken. It was Gaius Marius [photo, right], Roman general and Consul for an unprecedented seven times, who in about 106 BC inducted the Capite censi or head count into the Roman military. He was forced to do so when due to poor Roman generalship, the German's inflicted on the Romans their most devastating defeat ever, destroying Rome's army of propertied citizens. This reform meant that men no longer had to own property to fight for Rome, but that they owed their allegiance more to their generals than to Rome, something which Cesar and Pompeii both used to their advantage years later .

And Outkine warns that this American decline is in fact just one facet of the twilight of the entire Occident. "Five hundred years of Occidental domination of the world are drawing to a close. For its survival, Russia has hitched its wagon with the newly-emerging countries, alongside China, India and Brazil."

For evidence of this, the historian recalls how Russia is rebuilding its army, developing its new Boulava missile, is delivering weapons to China or Iran and is reestablishing itself in the Middle East. "Europe could have been the center of the world if it had only accepted Russia into NATO and the European Union," declares Anatoli Outkine. "In 2025, it's Shanghai that will be at the center of the world, and Russia will be in the camp of the Orient. Today we no longer expect anything from the West."

But cooler heads, who still have control of the country, recognize that not only is Russia unprepared to take the place of the United-States, but that its collapse is not necessarily in Russian interests.

"The crash-landing of the American Neo-conservatives and their demented policies is good for Russia, but not the crash of the United-States." clarifies Sergueï Markov. "We're content with every U.S. failure in Ukraine, where the Russian state was born. But we're not happy with the problems of the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan, nor would we be in Japan if the Japanese nationalists were to suddenly drive them out."

A Tectonic Shift

American disengagement is spurring Moscow to reconsider the world, adds Fiodor Loukianov, from Russia in Global Affairs. "Until recently, Russia was a partisan of the status quo. Its interest was to preserve the world order as it was, while the Occident wanted reform. Today, it's the Occident that wants to retain its title as winner of the Cold War, while Russia wants to change the order of things."

A vast Tectonic shift of geo-strategic plates is coming, perhaps like that observed in Moscow in 1989. But this time, Russia would like to be an actor - and not just a victim.

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