Tageblatt, Luxembourg

Eight Critical Days for Candidates for the White House

December 26, 2007

Luxembourg - Tageblatt – Original Article (French)

After a brief truce to celebrate Christmas, eight days from the first elections, candidates for the White House resumed campaigning on Wednesday in Iowa (center) to try to convince the remaining undecided voters, in a race that looks very open.

Caucuses (Assemblies of voters) to separate the pretenders to the investiture of their party will be held on January 3 in Iowa and the more recently published opinion polls revealed extremely narrow gaps between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on the Democratic side and Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney on the Republican side. According to the specialist site, Real Clear Politics, which presents all political polls, Mrs. Clinton has taken the advantage in Iowa, with support from 29.2% of those intending to vote, against the 27.3% support for her rival Barack Obama. John Edwards, who campaigned tirelessly for months in this rural state has been ambushed with 23.5% support from those intending to vote. Mrs. Clinton can be proud of the support the Des Moines Register, the largest newspaper in this state of three million people located in the center of the country. But on Sunday, Barack Obama received the support of another influential local newspaper, the Sioux City Journal.

On the Republican side, former Governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee leads the way with 29.2% of the intended vote, over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, with 25.5% of the intended votes. But given the margin of error of the polls, all these candidates are “in a pocket handkerchief” and cannot afford to take advantage of the "truce-recess”. In 2004, 40% of voters at the caucus decided during the last week. On Wednesday alone, Clinton and Obama plan to hold a total of 16 electoral meetings. They will not be alone on the ground. At least five other candidates -- Republican Senator from Arizona John McCain, the former Republican Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee, Mike Huckabee, the Democratic governor of New Mexico Bill Richardson and the Democratic Senator Joe Biden of Delaware -- have also expected to roam the snowy roads of the State. Democrat Senator Christopher Dodd of Connecticut was installed squarely with his family in an apartment in Des Moines, capital of the state.

After the test in Iowa is over, the candidates will not have time to breathe before the primary in New Hampshire (northeast), which is scheduled for Jan. 8. In that state, too, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama are neck and neck with, according to the opinion polls, a slight advantage for Mrs. Clinton. In the past, all Democrats who won both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary subsequently won the nomination of their party.

On the Republican side, the primary in New Hampshire is crucial for Mitt Romney, especially if he fails in Iowa, and John McCain, who has received support from former Democratic candidate for the vice-presidency, Joseph Lieberman, now a independent senator. Mr. McCain, placed third in Iowa, is relying in part on a breakthrough in the State of New England to return to the race. On the eve of these crucial events, Mrs. Clinton has war chest of nearly $91 million and M. Obama has more than $80 million. On the Republican side, former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, placed poorly in the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, but remaining the favorite Republican on the national level, can count on a jackpot of $47.3 million while Mitt Romney, a wealthy businessman, has nearly 63 million.

These figures are estimated and are expected to be confirmed on Thursday by the Federal Elections Commission (FEC), which will publish the finances of the candidates for the fourth quarter of 2007.